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updated on: March 15, 2012 15:48 IST
Sheela
Bhatt in New Delhi
Dinesh Trivedi played a smart one, but not a
very intelligent one, on Mamata Banerjee, but she is likely to have the last
laugh on the issue, reports Sheela Bhatt
Dinesh Trivedi's so-called rebellion has nothing
to do with the railway budget; it has nothing to do with his proposal to hike
passenger fares. Mamata Banerjee has sacked Trivedi because she doesn't trust
him. It is as simple as that.
This is the story of the leader losing faith in
his junior. She was suspicious, always, of his closeness to the Congress and he
gave ample reasons to make her go mad. Trivedi was quite bold in the assertion
of his personal views abut his party, the United Progressive Alliance
government and Banerjee's mercurial temper. Through some members of the Bengali
media in New Delhi, she was well-informed about Trivedi's views on her.
Many reports suggests WRONGLY that 'Mamata is
punishing Trivedi for raising the railway fares'. In fact, sources in the
Congress told rediff.com, "We were expecting him to go much before the
railway budget. It didn't happen, so we believed that he will be asked to go amicably
after the budget session."
The Congress thinks that Trivedi didn't tie up
his exit plans well, creating an avoidable crisis for the government in the
process.
It is very significant to note that Banerjee's
ire against Trivedi has been compounded because of the real political issues
she is facing everyday in Kolkata.
It is a well-known fact that the Left-led
government of West Bengal has handed over a bankrupt state to Mamata. She is
not in a position to plan or execute any big development plans because she has
to pay a hefty interest on the debt. West Bengal has over Rs 2.04 lakh crore of
debt piled up, making it the state with the highest ratio of gross state
domestic product to debt in India.
The state budget of 2010-11 said that Rs 15,000
crore was going towards debt servicing. Imagine Mamata's predicament at having
only Rs 5000 crore in hand to invest in development activity.
She is seeking a moratorium on the payback plan.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is well aware of her predicament in running the
state. She is, essentially, a populist leader who needs a special budget for
her populist ideas. The Centre has a problem in agreeing to Mamata because
Punjab and Kerala are also in a similar financial mess, and the moratorium on
huge interest will have to be given to these two states too.
Mamata has defeated the Left parties in an
historic assembly election. Obviously, her next and prime target is the
Congress in West Bengal.
The Congress can't, for obvious political
reasons, grant such a big favour to West Bengal. Mamata, on other hand, is
impatient because without some space to plan dynamic schemes to woo voters, she
can't sustain the goodwill of her constituents.
Her critics are already writing that her
popularity graph is on the decline due to micro-management of governance and
lack of direction on macro issues.
The combination of all the above issues has
convinced Mamata that Trivedi is not her best bet to pursue her plans in New
Delhi, to bargain for the best possible terms by securing more funds from New
Delhi, even though she will march on with her plans to hit at the Congress's
turf inside West Bengal.
In this tough battle, another angle is added due
to Banerjee's prime ministerial ambitions since the Congress's stock is
plummeting fast. Like Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, she would prefer
early polls to gain maximum advantage.
The TC has 18 members of Parliament but Mamata
thinks that if elections are held now she will get many more seats in the LS
and will be much a bigger force in national politics in the new set-up. In view
of her own popularity facing multiple challenges, she is impatient and wants
early elections.
Another minor issue in the evolving drama is
that Trivedi is member of Parliament from Barrackpore where Muslim voters are
the most important strategic voters.
Trivedi, who has generated goodwill among Muslim
leaders in his constituency, is convinced that the Trinamool Congress now or
after the Lok Sabha polls cannot side with the National Democratic Alliance led
by the Bharatiya Janata Party due to the sensitivity of Muslim voters of West
Bengal.
This makes him suspect in the eyes of Mamata who
is convinced that the UPA has lost steam and all options should be open before
her.
Compared to Mamata's vision, Trivedi has
diagonally opposite views on development, financial management, the future of
TC, handling of the Muslim vote bank in Bengal and on having truck with the
BJP. The source in Congress says, "It is very much possible that Trivedi
must have thought, on the eve of the railway budget, why not to go down after
earning the status of shahid?"
Trivedi is using and playing with Mamata's
unpopularity among the New Delhi media smartly. The source in Congress
says, "It is anybody's guess if there was 'match-fixing' between Mamata
and Trivedi to allow him to present the railways budget and then leave on the
issue of the hike in passenger fares."
It seems the luxury of parting amicably is not
available to Trivedi after his aggressive interviews on television on
Wednesday. Trivedi has linked the fare hikes to national interest and is saying
that for him the party, meaning Mamata, is less important than the nation and
his family.
If at all there was some pre-decided arrangement
between Mamata and Trivedi, it broke down midway on Wednesday.
Trivedi played a smart one, but not a very
intelligent one, on Mamata, but she is likely to have the last laugh on the
issue. That is, on the issue of taking the side of the aam aadmi in the
political battlefield of West Bengal where she faces the Congress and the Left
parties.
